Interest rates up – prices (significantly) down. This is what you have been hearing and reading for months. From our daily tendering practice, we know that many market participants see this in a much more differentiated way. Therefore, we took a closer look.
We looked at the empirically observable facts over a long period from Q3/1973 to Q4/2021. In our opinion, the quarterly house price index of the Federal Statistical Office provides the best basis. It is based on the actual transactions reported by the valuation committees. Thus, practically all transactions with their actual prices are taken into account. However, real estate prices cannot be directly observed over time, as the individual properties differ in terms of price-relevant characteristics, the individual property is rarely resold, and its quality changes over time. The indices take this into account by applying so-called hedonic methods. These methods smooth the data and may result in the reported price developments being less volatile than the actual price developments.
The study over the long period shows for German residential properties that their prices (i) decrease significantly with rising interest rates, (ii) partially compensate for (energy) inflation, (iii) increase slightly with a growing GDP, and (iv) increase in the long term with population growth. Based on the data, we were able to isolate the influences of the individual factors and quantify the effects of changes in the initial parameters (e.g. the rise in interest rates in H1 2022) on prices.
It turns out that the relationships mentioned are economically much weaker than the frequently heard theses “Rising interest rates depress real estate prices” “Real estate prices rise with inflation” suggest. In addition, we could only determine them for residential properties; in contrast, no interest rate and inflation effects can be found for the asset classes office and retail.
Of course, this empirical-historical study also does not allow any reliable statements on how the price development will continue. However, it provides information that can help asset managers, developers and financiers with their market assessments.
The study was published in Absolut 06/2022 (December) and is available there for subscribers.
If you are interested in further information, please do not hesitate to contact us.